MLB Picks for September 23: The Model Went 9-7
By Verdexed Analytics
16 MLB games on September 23. The model went 9-7 on the day. Season to date through September 23: 771-597 (56.4%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at ATL | ATL | 70% | 79% | 70% | ATL 3-2 | Hit |
| SD at LAD | LAD | 67% | 66% | 67% | SD 5-1 | Miss |
| MIA at CHC | CHC | 62% | 67% | 61% | MIA 3-2 | Miss |
| WSH at DET | DET | 60% | 59% | 60% | WSH 4-2 | Miss |
| MIN at SF | MIN | 59% | 51% | 59% | MIN 4-2 | Hit |
| AZ at COL | AZ | 58% | 60% | 58% | AZ 5-3 | Hit |
| STL at PIT | PIT | 56% | 51% | 56% | STL 5-1 | Miss |
| CLE at BOS | BOS | 55% | 58% | 55% | BOS 1-0 | Hit |
| TB at NYY | NYY | 55% | 54% | 55% | NYY 9-2 | Hit |
| HOU at SEA | SEA | 54% | 59% | 54% | SEA 6-5 | Hit |
| TOR at BAL | BAL | 54% | 53% | 54% | BAL 4-2 | Hit |
| TOR at BAL | BAL | 54% | 53% | 54% | BAL 4-2 | Hit |
| LAA at ATH | LAA | 54% | 52% | 54% | ATH 7-3 | Miss |
| MIL at PHI | MIL | 53% | 56% | 53% | MIL 4-1 | Hit |
| CWS at KC | CWS | 52% | 51% | 52% | KC 5-4 | Miss |
| NYM at TEX | TEX | 50.1% | 50.4% | 50.1% | NYM 7-2 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
ATL over CIN: model 79%, market 70%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. MIN over SF: model 51%, market 59%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. CHC over MIA: model 67%, market 61%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. SEA over HOU: model 59%, market 54%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit. PIT over STL: model 51%, market 56%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATL 70% over CIN (hit), LAD 67% over SD (miss), CHC 62% over MIA (miss).
Season to date
Through September 23: 771-597 (56.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 161-83.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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