MLB Picks for September 22: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 22. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through September 22: 762-590 (56.4%), Brier 0.242.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at CHC | CHC | 64% | 58% | 64% | MIA 8-2 | Miss |
| AZ at COL | AZ | 63% | 59% | 64% | AZ 7-2 | Hit |
| CIN at ATL | ATL | 63% | 69% | 63% | CIN 4-0 | Miss |
| STL at PIT | PIT | 60% | 56% | 61% | PIT 2-0 | Hit |
| WSH at DET | DET | 58% | 49% | 58% | WSH 3-1 | Miss |
| MIL at PHI | PHI | 56% | 51% | 56% | PHI 6-4 | Hit |
| TB at NYY | NYY | 55% | 53% | 55% | TB 6-1 | Miss |
| TB at NYY | NYY | 55% | 53% | 55% | NYY 2-0 | Hit |
| HOU at SEA | SEA | 55% | 54% | 55% | HOU 7-0 | Miss |
| MIN at SF | MIN | 55% | 51% | 55% | MIN 3-2 | Hit |
| NYM at TEX | TEX | 54% | 53% | 55% | NYM 6-3 | Miss |
| SD at LAD | LAD | 54% | 53% | 54% | LAD 7-0 | Hit |
| CLE at BOS | BOS | 54% | 49% | 54% | CLE 3-2 | Miss |
| CWS at KC | CWS | 53% | 49.6% | 53% | CWS 14-11 | Hit |
| LAA at ATH | ATH | 50.5% | 53% | 50.3% | ATH 9-7 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
WSH at DET: the model took WSH (51%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick missed. CLE at BOS: the model took CLE (51%), the market BOS; the served pick was BOS and the pick missed. CWS at KC: the model took KC (50.4%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick hit. CHC over MIA: model 58%, market 64%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed. ATL over CIN: model 69%, market 63%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. PHI over MIL: model 51%, market 56%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: CHC 64% over MIA (miss), AZ 63% over COL (hit), ATL 63% over CIN (miss).
Season to date
Through September 22: 762-590 (56.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.242. Picks at 60% or better went 160-81.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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