MLB Picks for September 21: The Model Went 2-1
By Verdexed Analytics
3 MLB games on September 21. The model went 2-1 on the day. Season to date through September 21: 754-583 (56.4%), Brier 0.242.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at DET | DET | 55% | 57% | 55% | DET 9-2 | Hit |
| MIN at SF | MIN | 52% | 52% | 52% | SF 5-2 | Miss |
| TOR at BAL | BAL | 51% | 52% | 51% | BAL 4-3 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: DET 55% over WSH (hit), MIN 52% over SF (miss), BAL 51% over TOR (hit).
Season to date
Through September 21: 754-583 (56.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.242. Picks at 60% or better went 158-79.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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