MLB Picks for September 20: The Model Went 13-2
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 20. The model went 13-2 on the day. Season to date through September 20: 752-582 (56.4%), Brier 0.242.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAD | LAD | 70% | 62% | 71% | LAD 3-1 | Hit |
| ATH at CLE | CLE | 68% | 68% | 68% | CLE 1-0 | Hit |
| MIL at BAL | MIL | 65% | 78% | 64% | MIL 3-0 | Hit |
| TOR at TEX | TEX | 60% | 54% | 60% | TOR 7-2 | Miss |
| SEA at COL | SEA | 59% | 57% | 59% | SEA 2-1 | Hit |
| CHC at CIN | CHC | 59% | 57% | 59% | CHC 9-1 | Hit |
| PHI at NYM | PHI | 58% | 57% | 58% | PHI 7-2 | Hit |
| BOS at TB | TB | 58% | 62% | 58% | TB 5-1 | Hit |
| ATL at HOU | HOU | 58% | 58% | 58% | ATL 4-2 | Miss |
| MIA at SD | SD | 57% | 54% | 57% | SD 7-3 | Hit |
| WSH at STL | STL | 55% | 62% | 54% | STL 5-3 | Hit |
| KC at PIT | PIT | 52% | 54% | 52% | PIT 4-3 | Hit |
| MIN at LAA | MIN | 52% | 55% | 52% | MIN 8-0 | Hit |
| NYY at AZ | AZ | 52% | 53% | 52% | AZ 8-4 | Hit |
| DET at CWS | CWS | 52% | 48% | 52% | CWS 8-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
DET at CWS: the model took DET (52%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick hit. MIL over BAL: model 78%, market 64%, a 13-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over SF: model 62%, market 71%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. STL over WSH: model 62%, market 54%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. TEX over TOR: model 54%, market 60%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 70% over SF (hit), CLE 68% over ATH (hit), MIL 65% over BAL (hit).
Season to date
Through September 20: 752-582 (56.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.242. Picks at 60% or better went 158-79.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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