MLB Picks for September 19: The Model Went 11-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 19. The model went 11-4 on the day. Season to date through September 19: 739-580 (56.0%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAD | LAD | 76% | 60% | 77% | LAD 10-4 | Hit |
| ATH at CLE | CLE | 62% | 59% | 62% | CLE 12-6 | Hit |
| NYY at AZ | NYY | 60% | 54% | 60% | AZ 5-3 | Miss |
| MIA at SD | SD | 59% | 57% | 59% | SD 7-6 | Hit |
| BOS at TB | TB | 58% | 56% | 58% | TB 2-1 | Hit |
| SEA at COL | SEA | 58% | 52% | 58% | COL 5-3 | Miss |
| CHC at CIN | CHC | 56% | 53% | 56% | CHC 5-2 | Hit |
| ATL at HOU | HOU | 55% | 49.6% | 55% | ATL 6-3 | Miss |
| DET at CWS | CWS | 55% | 50.2% | 55% | CWS 3-1 | Hit |
| PHI at NYM | NYM | 53% | 52% | 53% | NYM 10-3 | Hit |
| KC at PIT | PIT | 52% | 56% | 52% | PIT 6-5 | Hit |
| WSH at STL | STL | 51% | 49.7% | 51% | WSH 8-5 | Miss |
| MIL at BAL | MIL | 51% | 49% | 51% | MIL 1-0 | Hit |
| MIN at LAA | LAA | 50.4% | 52% | 50.3% | LAA 6-5 | Hit |
| TOR at TEX | TEX | 50.2% | 50.2% | 50.2% | TEX 6-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
ATL at HOU: the model took ATL (50.4%), the market HOU; the served pick was HOU and the pick missed. MIL at BAL: the model took BAL (51%), the market MIL; the served pick was MIL and the pick hit. WSH at STL: the model took WSH (50.3%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick missed. LAD over SF: model 60%, market 77%, a 17-point gap; the pick hit. SEA over COL: model 52%, market 58%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. NYY over AZ: model 54%, market 60%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 76% over SF (hit), CLE 62% over ATH (hit), NYY 60% over AZ (miss).
Season to date
Through September 19: 739-580 (56.0%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 155-79.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.