MLB Picks for September 18: The Model Went 11-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 18. The model went 11-4 on the day. Season to date through September 18: 728-576 (55.8%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAD | LAD | 72% | 72% | 73% | LAD 8-2 | Hit |
| ATH at CLE | CLE | 67% | 68% | 67% | CLE 5-3 | Hit |
| MIA at SD | SD | 65% | 58% | 66% | SD 8-2 | Hit |
| KC at PIT | PIT | 63% | 62% | 63% | PIT 8-5 | Hit |
| SEA at COL | SEA | 62% | 51% | 63% | SEA 5-4 | Hit |
| MIL at BAL | MIL | 56% | 53% | 56% | MIL 6-5 | Hit |
| CHC at CIN | CHC | 56% | 49.6% | 56% | CIN 6-4 | Miss |
| BOS at TB | TB | 55% | 58% | 55% | BOS 4-2 | Miss |
| TOR at TEX | TOR | 55% | 53% | 55% | TEX 7-1 | Miss |
| DET at CWS | CWS | 54% | 47% | 54% | DET 11-8 | Miss |
| ATL at HOU | ATL | 52% | 53% | 52% | ATL 6-2 | Hit |
| NYY at AZ | NYY | 52% | 54% | 52% | NYY 9-2 | Hit |
| MIN at LAA | MIN | 51% | 52% | 51% | MIN 3-0 | Hit |
| PHI at NYM | NYM | 51% | 52% | 51% | NYM 6-3 | Hit |
| WSH at STL | WSH | 50.1% | 46% | 50.3% | WSH 9-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
DET at CWS: the model took DET (53%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick missed. CHC at CIN: the model took CIN (50.4%), the market CHC; the served pick was CHC and the pick missed. WSH at STL: the model took STL (54%), the market WSH; the served pick was WSH and the pick hit. SEA over COL: model 51%, market 63%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. SD over MIA: model 58%, market 66%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 72% over SF (hit), CLE 67% over ATH (hit), SD 65% over MIA (hit).
Season to date
Through September 18: 728-576 (55.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 153-79.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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