MLB Picks for September 17: The Model Went 6-3
By Verdexed Analytics
9 MLB games on September 17. The model went 6-3 on the day. Season to date through September 17: 717-572 (55.6%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH at TB | TB | 70% | 71% | 70% | TB 10-1 | Hit |
| SD at COL | SD | 64% | 57% | 64% | SD 9-2 | Hit |
| LAD at CIN | LAD | 60% | 55% | 60% | LAD 8-2 | Hit |
| KC at HOU | HOU | 58% | 54% | 58% | HOU 6-2 | Hit |
| MIL at PIT | MIL | 56% | 53% | 56% | PIT 7-4 | Miss |
| PHI at NYM | NYM | 54% | 49.9% | 54% | PHI 3-0 | Miss |
| BOS at TEX | BOS | 53% | 52% | 53% | BOS 4-3 | Hit |
| DET at CWS | CWS | 51% | 48% | 52% | CWS 3-1 | Hit |
| MIN at LAA | MIN | 50.4% | 51% | 50.4% | LAA 5-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
PHI at NYM: the model took PHI (50.1%), the market NYM; the served pick was NYM and the pick missed. DET at CWS: the model took DET (52%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick hit. SD over COL: model 57%, market 64%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: TB 70% over ATH (hit), SD 64% over COL (hit), LAD 60% over CIN (hit).
Season to date
Through September 17: 717-572 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 148-79.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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