MLB Picks for September 16: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 16. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through September 16: 711-569 (55.5%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at CIN | LAD | 65% | 61% | 66% | CIN 6-2 | Miss |
| PHI at WSH | PHI | 63% | 53% | 64% | PHI 3-0 | Hit |
| ATH at TB | TB | 62% | 59% | 62% | TB 4-3 | Hit |
| SD at COL | SD | 60% | 53% | 60% | SD 9-3 | Hit |
| KC at HOU | HOU | 60% | 62% | 60% | KC 5-2 | Miss |
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 60% | 66% | 59% | CLE 6-3 | Hit |
| SF at STL | STL | 59% | 60% | 59% | SF 6-5 | Miss |
| ATL at CHC | CHC | 59% | 56% | 59% | CHC 8-4 | Hit |
| NYY at MIN | NYY | 58% | 58% | 58% | MIN 5-4 | Miss |
| SEA at LAA | SEA | 56% | 54% | 57% | SEA 7-2 | Hit |
| DET at TOR | TOR | 55% | 55% | 55% | TOR 5-1 | Hit |
| MIA at AZ | AZ | 55% | 56% | 55% | MIA 4-3 | Miss |
| BAL at NYM | NYM | 55% | 53% | 55% | BAL 7-1 | Miss |
| MIL at PIT | MIL | 53% | 55% | 53% | MIL 5-4 | Hit |
| BOS at TEX | BOS | 50.5% | 51% | 50.4% | TEX 7-3 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
PHI over WSH: model 53%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. SD over COL: model 53%, market 60%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. CLE over CWS: model 66%, market 59%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 65% over CIN (miss), PHI 63% over WSH (hit), TB 62% over ATH (hit).
Season to date
Through September 16: 711-569 (55.5%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 146-79.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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