MLB Picks for September 15: The Model Went 6-9
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 15. The model went 6-9 on the day. Season to date through September 15: 703-562 (55.6%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at CIN | LAD | 68% | 68% | 68% | LAD 4-0 | Hit |
| ATH at TB | TB | 67% | 70% | 67% | TB 2-1 | Hit |
| MIL at PIT | MIL | 67% | 69% | 67% | MIL 5-1 | Hit |
| PHI at WSH | PHI | 65% | 56% | 65% | WSH 6-3 | Miss |
| SD at COL | SD | 63% | 54% | 64% | COL 9-3 | Miss |
| NYY at MIN | NYY | 62% | 69% | 61% | NYY 8-1 | Hit |
| SEA at LAA | SEA | 61% | 64% | 61% | LAA 2-1 | Miss |
| SF at STL | STL | 60% | 62% | 60% | SF 10-3 | Miss |
| KC at HOU | HOU | 60% | 55% | 60% | HOU 4-2 | Hit |
| MIA at AZ | AZ | 58% | 55% | 58% | MIA 4-2 | Miss |
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 57% | 57% | 58% | CLE 7-6 | Hit |
| ATL at CHC | CHC | 56% | 60% | 56% | ATL 6-3 | Miss |
| DET at TOR | TOR | 56% | 52% | 56% | DET 10-1 | Miss |
| BAL at NYM | NYM | 55% | 52% | 55% | BAL 7-5 | Miss |
| BOS at TEX | BOS | 54% | 48% | 54% | TEX 4-2 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
BOS at TEX: the model took TEX (52%), the market BOS; the served pick was BOS and the pick missed. PHI over WSH: model 56%, market 65%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed. SD over COL: model 54%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed. NYY over MIN: model 69%, market 61%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 68% over CIN (hit), TB 67% over ATH (hit), MIL 67% over PIT (hit).
Season to date
Through September 15: 703-562 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 143-78.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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