MLB Picks for September 14: The Model Went 6-4
By Verdexed Analytics
10 MLB games on September 14. The model went 6-4 on the day. Season to date through September 14: 697-553 (55.8%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at CIN | LAD | 65% | 59% | 66% | LAD 4-1 | Hit |
| SD at COL | SD | 64% | 63% | 65% | SD 8-7 | Hit |
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 58% | 58% | 58% | CWS 7-3 | Miss |
| SF at STL | STL | 57% | 57% | 57% | STL 2-1 | Hit |
| DET at TOR | TOR | 55% | 56% | 55% | DET 6-5 | Miss |
| ATL at CHC | CHC | 55% | 51% | 55% | CHC 7-3 | Hit |
| MIA at AZ | AZ | 55% | 59% | 54% | AZ 8-7 | Hit |
| NYY at MIN | NYY | 53% | 55% | 53% | NYY 8-3 | Hit |
| BAL at NYM | NYM | 53% | 56% | 53% | BAL 2-1 | Miss |
| SEA at LAA | SEA | 51% | 46% | 51% | LAA 6-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
SEA at LAA: the model took LAA (54%), the market SEA; the served pick was SEA and the pick missed. LAD over CIN: model 59%, market 66%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 65% over CIN (hit), SD 64% over COL (hit), CLE 58% over CWS (miss).
Season to date
Through September 14: 697-553 (55.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 139-75.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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