MLB Picks for September 13: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 13. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through September 13: 691-549 (55.7%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at MIL | MIL | 63% | 56% | 63% | CIN 4-3 | Miss |
| KC at BOS | BOS | 62% | 57% | 62% | BOS 4-1 | Hit |
| COL at DET | DET | 62% | 56% | 62% | DET 8-1 | Hit |
| NYM at NYY | NYY | 62% | 64% | 61% | NYY 2-0 | Hit |
| PIT at CHC | CHC | 59% | 54% | 59% | PIT 4-3 | Miss |
| BAL at TOR | TOR | 58% | 56% | 58% | TOR 8-1 | Hit |
| LAD at MIA | LAD | 56% | 55% | 56% | MIA 6-4 | Miss |
| HOU at TB | TB | 55% | 56% | 55% | TB 14-4 | Hit |
| LAA at WSH | WSH | 55% | 51% | 55% | WSH 6-5 | Hit |
| SEA at ATH | SEA | 55% | 51% | 55% | ATH 8-7 | Miss |
| TEX at AZ | AZ | 54% | 54% | 54% | TEX 7-6 | Miss |
| PHI at ATL | ATL | 54% | 52% | 54% | PHI 9-4 | Miss |
| SD at SF | SD | 54% | 46% | 54% | SD 6-4 | Hit |
| CLE at MIN | MIN | 54% | 52% | 54% | CLE 9-2 | Miss |
| CWS at STL | CWS | 54% | 43% | 54% | STL 3-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
CWS at STL: the model took STL (57%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick missed. SD at SF: the model took SF (54%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick hit. MIL over CIN: model 56%, market 63%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed. DET over COL: model 56%, market 62%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. BOS over KC: model 57%, market 62%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 63% over CIN (miss), BOS 62% over KC (hit), DET 62% over COL (hit).
Season to date
Through September 13: 691-549 (55.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 137-75.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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