MLB Picks for September 12: The Model Went 11-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 12. The model went 11-4 on the day. Season to date through September 12: 684-541 (55.8%), Brier 0.243.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at BOS | BOS | 66% | 55% | 66% | BOS 5-1 | Hit |
| LAD at MIA | LAD | 63% | 66% | 63% | MIA 4-3 | Miss |
| CIN at MIL | MIL | 62% | 60% | 62% | MIL 13-9 | Hit |
| COL at DET | DET | 61% | 61% | 61% | DET 11-7 | Hit |
| NYM at NYY | NYY | 61% | 60% | 61% | NYM 12-2 | Miss |
| SEA at ATH | SEA | 60% | 53% | 61% | SEA 19-1 | Hit |
| SD at SF | SD | 60% | 49.7% | 60% | SD 7-6 | Hit |
| HOU at TB | TB | 57% | 60% | 57% | TB 3-2 | Hit |
| TEX at AZ | AZ | 56% | 56% | 56% | TEX 6-2 | Miss |
| PIT at CHC | CHC | 53% | 53% | 53% | CHC 4-3 | Hit |
| PHI at ATL | ATL | 52% | 52% | 52% | ATL 12-2 | Hit |
| LAA at WSH | WSH | 52% | 55% | 52% | WSH 6-5 | Hit |
| CWS at STL | STL | 51% | 55% | 51% | CWS 6-5 | Miss |
| BAL at TOR | TOR | 51% | 55% | 51% | TOR 7-3 | Hit |
| CLE at MIN | MIN | 50.1% | 49% | 50.2% | MIN 4-3 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
SD at SF: the model took SF (50.3%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick hit. CLE at MIN: the model took CLE (51%), the market MIN; the served pick was MIN and the pick hit. BOS over KC: model 55%, market 66%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. SEA over ATH: model 53%, market 61%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: BOS 66% over KC (hit), LAD 63% over MIA (miss), MIL 62% over CIN (hit).
Season to date
Through September 12: 684-541 (55.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.243. Picks at 60% or better went 134-74.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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