MLB Picks for September 11: The Model Went 11-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 11. The model went 11-4 on the day. Season to date through September 11: 673-537 (55.6%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at MIL | MIL | 64% | 60% | 64% | MIL 20-0 | Hit |
| LAD at MIA | LAD | 64% | 51% | 65% | LAD 6-2 | Hit |
| KC at BOS | BOS | 64% | 58% | 64% | KC 3-2 | Miss |
| PIT at CHC | CHC | 63% | 54% | 64% | CHC 12-2 | Hit |
| PHI at ATL | ATL | 63% | 57% | 63% | ATL 6-5 | Hit |
| COL at DET | DET | 62% | 57% | 62% | DET 6-2 | Hit |
| HOU at TB | TB | 61% | 59% | 61% | TB 3-1 | Hit |
| SEA at ATH | SEA | 60% | 55% | 60% | ATH 6-5 | Miss |
| LAA at WSH | WSH | 58% | 57% | 58% | WSH 4-3 | Hit |
| SD at SF | SD | 57% | 48% | 57% | SD 7-5 | Hit |
| NYM at NYY | NYY | 56% | 59% | 56% | NYY 6-4 | Hit |
| BAL at TOR | TOR | 55% | 53% | 55% | BAL 7-4 | Miss |
| TEX at AZ | AZ | 54% | 54% | 54% | AZ 9-1 | Hit |
| CLE at MIN | CLE | 53% | 55% | 53% | CLE 5-2 | Hit |
| CWS at STL | CWS | 50.5% | 43% | 51% | STL 7-3 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
SD at SF: the model took SF (52%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick hit. CWS at STL: the model took STL (57%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick missed. LAD over MIA: model 51%, market 65%, a 13-point gap; the pick hit. CHC over PIT: model 54%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. BOS over KC: model 58%, market 64%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed. ATL over PHI: model 57%, market 63%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 64% over CIN (hit), LAD 64% over MIA (hit), BOS 64% over KC (miss).
Season to date
Through September 11: 673-537 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 130-72.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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