MLB Picks for September 10: The Model Went 3-2
By Verdexed Analytics
5 MLB games on September 10. The model went 3-2 on the day. Season to date through September 10: 662-533 (55.4%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at NYY | NYY | 72% | 79% | 72% | NYY 10-3 | Hit |
| HOU at PHI | PHI | 62% | 58% | 62% | HOU 2-1 | Miss |
| TEX at SEA | SEA | 54% | 52% | 54% | SEA 4-3 | Hit |
| TB at ATL | ATL | 52% | 51% | 52% | ATL 3-1 | Hit |
| PIT at CWS | CWS | 50.1% | 53% | 50.0% | PIT 2-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
NYY over COL: model 79%, market 72%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: NYY 72% over COL (hit), PHI 62% over HOU (miss), SEA 54% over TEX (hit).
Season to date
Through September 10: 662-533 (55.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 124-71.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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