MLB Picks for September 9: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 9. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through September 9: 659-531 (55.4%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at LAD | LAD | 71% | 67% | 71% | LAD 14-1 | Hit |
| COL at NYY | NYY | 69% | 72% | 69% | NYY 6-1 | Hit |
| LAA at BOS | BOS | 66% | 74% | 66% | LAA 6-4 | Miss |
| TOR at ATH | TOR | 60% | 48% | 61% | ATH 2-0 | Miss |
| WSH at SD | SD | 60% | 56% | 60% | SD 9-2 | Hit |
| HOU at PHI | PHI | 58% | 57% | 58% | PHI 11-7 | Hit |
| TEX at SEA | SEA | 57% | 52% | 57% | SEA 3-2 | Hit |
| PIT at CWS | CWS | 55% | 53% | 55% | PIT 4-2 | Miss |
| CHC at MIL | MIL | 54% | 54% | 54% | MIL 8-6 | Hit |
| NYM at MIA | MIA | 53% | 54% | 53% | NYM 15-14 | Miss |
| TB at ATL | ATL | 53% | 54% | 53% | TB 7-2 | Miss |
| AZ at KC | AZ | 52% | 51% | 52% | KC 5-2 | Miss |
| STL at SF | STL | 52% | 49% | 52% | SF 7-6 | Miss |
| CLE at BAL | CLE | 52% | 48% | 52% | BAL 9-5 | Miss |
| MIN at DET | DET | 52% | 51% | 52% | DET 7-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
TOR at ATH: the model took ATH (52%), the market TOR; the served pick was TOR and the pick missed. CLE at BAL: the model took BAL (52%), the market CLE; the served pick was CLE and the pick missed. STL at SF: the model took SF (51%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick missed. BOS over LAA: model 74%, market 66%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 71% over CIN (hit), NYY 69% over COL (hit), BOS 66% over LAA (miss).
Season to date
Through September 9: 659-531 (55.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 123-70.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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