MLB Picks for September 8: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 8. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through September 8: 652-523 (55.5%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at NYY | NYY | 74% | 75% | 74% | NYY 5-3 | Hit |
| CIN at LAD | LAD | 73% | 67% | 74% | LAD 3-2 | Hit |
| CHC at MIL | MIL | 65% | 56% | 66% | MIL 4-3 | Hit |
| WSH at SD | SD | 62% | 61% | 62% | SD 5-4 | Hit |
| TOR at ATH | TOR | 62% | 53% | 62% | TOR 4-2 | Hit |
| LAA at BOS | BOS | 57% | 57% | 57% | LAA 6-1 | Miss |
| PIT at CWS | CWS | 56% | 52% | 57% | PIT 9-3 | Miss |
| HOU at PHI | PHI | 56% | 55% | 56% | HOU 6-5 | Miss |
| MIN at DET | DET | 55% | 51% | 55% | MIN 3-2 | Miss |
| TEX at SEA | SEA | 55% | 53% | 55% | TEX 10-5 | Miss |
| NYM at MIA | MIA | 53% | 52% | 53% | NYM 7-5 | Miss |
| CLE at BAL | BAL | 53% | 50.1% | 53% | CLE 9-5 | Miss |
| AZ at KC | AZ | 52% | 48% | 52% | AZ 5-3 | Hit |
| TB at ATL | ATL | 52% | 52% | 52% | TB 7-1 | Miss |
| STL at SF | SF | 50.0% | 51% | 50.0% | SF 2-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
AZ at KC: the model took KC (52%), the market AZ; the served pick was AZ and the pick hit. MIL over CHC: model 56%, market 66%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. TOR over ATH: model 53%, market 62%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over CIN: model 67%, market 74%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: NYY 74% over COL (hit), LAD 73% over CIN (hit), MIL 65% over CHC (hit).
Season to date
Through September 8: 652-523 (55.5%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 120-68.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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