MLB Picks for September 7: The Model Went 8-3
By Verdexed Analytics
11 MLB games on September 7. The model went 8-3 on the day. Season to date through September 7: 645-515 (55.6%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR at ATH | TOR | 64% | 55% | 64% | ATH 6-5 | Miss |
| WSH at SD | SD | 63% | 66% | 63% | SD 3-2 | Hit |
| LAA at BOS | BOS | 61% | 58% | 62% | BOS 5-2 | Hit |
| ATL at PHI | PHI | 60% | 57% | 60% | PHI 1-0 | Hit |
| CIN at LAD | LAD | 58% | 54% | 58% | LAD 6-3 | Hit |
| STL at SF | SF | 54% | 55% | 54% | SF 5-4 | Hit |
| CLE at BAL | BAL | 54% | 52% | 54% | BAL 6-4 | Hit |
| CHC at MIL | MIL | 53% | 54% | 53% | MIL 4-3 | Hit |
| NYM at MIA | MIA | 52% | 54% | 52% | NYM 9-4 | Miss |
| MIN at DET | DET | 52% | 54% | 52% | DET 5-4 | Hit |
| AZ at KC | KC | 51% | 53% | 51% | AZ 5-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
TOR over ATH: model 55%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: TOR 64% over ATH (miss), SD 63% over WSH (hit), BOS 61% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through September 7: 645-515 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 115-68.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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