MLB Picks for September 6: The Model Went 9-6
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 6. The model went 9-6 on the day. Season to date through September 6: 637-512 (55.4%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at LAD | LAD | 64% | 58% | 64% | LAD 7-5 | Hit |
| ATH at SEA | SEA | 64% | 56% | 64% | SEA 2-0 | Hit |
| LAA at PIT | PIT | 62% | 63% | 62% | PIT 1-0 | Hit |
| DET at CLE | CLE | 61% | 66% | 60% | CLE 3-2 | Hit |
| MIL at CIN | MIL | 59% | 54% | 59% | CIN 12-8 | Miss |
| SF at NYM | NYM | 58% | 51% | 58% | NYM 4-2 | Hit |
| MIN at CWS | CWS | 57% | 56% | 57% | CWS 10-1 | Hit |
| CHC at MIA | CHC | 57% | 51% | 57% | MIA 10-3 | Miss |
| STL at COL | STL | 56% | 73% | 55% | STL 10-8 | Hit |
| BOS at BAL | BOS | 55% | 49.9% | 55% | BOS 3-1 | Hit |
| TOR at KC | TOR | 52% | 46% | 53% | KC 6-1 | Miss |
| NYY at SD | NYY | 51% | 51% | 51% | SD 4-3 | Miss |
| AZ at HOU | HOU | 50.5% | 51% | 50.4% | AZ 3-2 | Miss |
| ATL at PHI | PHI | 50.2% | 53% | 50.0% | ATL 5-4 | Miss |
| TB at TEX | TEX | 50.1% | 51% | 50.0% | TEX 8-6 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
TOR at KC: the model took KC (54%), the market TOR; the served pick was TOR and the pick missed. BOS at BAL: the model took BAL (50.1%), the market BOS; the served pick was BOS and the pick hit. STL over COL: model 73%, market 55%, an 18-point gap; the pick hit. SEA over ATH: model 56%, market 64%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. NYM over SF: model 51%, market 58%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over WSH: model 58%, market 64%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 64% over WSH (hit), SEA 64% over ATH (hit), PIT 62% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through September 6: 637-512 (55.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 113-67.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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