MLB Picks for September 5: The Model Went 4-11
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 5. The model went 4-11 on the day. Season to date through September 5: 628-506 (55.4%), Brier 0.245.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH at SEA | SEA | 68% | 64% | 68% | ATH 6-2 | Miss |
| WSH at LAD | LAD | 66% | 60% | 66% | LAD 6-5 | Hit |
| LAA at PIT | PIT | 63% | 61% | 63% | LAA 6-1 | Miss |
| SF at NYM | NYM | 60% | 58% | 60% | SF 9-5 | Miss |
| DET at CLE | CLE | 59% | 62% | 59% | DET 6-0 | Miss |
| ATL at PHI | PHI | 59% | 58% | 59% | PHI 4-2 | Hit |
| MIL at CIN | MIL | 58% | 50.2% | 58% | CIN 5-3 | Miss |
| BOS at BAL | BOS | 54% | 53% | 54% | BOS 5-0 | Hit |
| NYY at SD | SD | 54% | 47% | 54% | NYY 5-1 | Miss |
| STL at COL | STL | 53% | 54% | 53% | COL 10-7 | Miss |
| CHC at MIA | CHC | 53% | 49% | 53% | CHC 6-5 | Hit |
| MIN at CWS | CWS | 53% | 52% | 53% | MIN 6-4 | Miss |
| AZ at HOU | HOU | 50.3% | 48% | 50.4% | AZ 4-3 | Miss |
| TB at TEX | TEX | 50.2% | 54% | 50.0% | TB 6-3 | Miss |
| TOR at KC | KC | 50.1% | 53% | 50.0% | TOR 4-3 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
NYY at SD: the model took NYY (53%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick missed. CHC at MIA: the model took MIA (51%), the market CHC; the served pick was CHC and the pick hit. AZ at HOU: the model took AZ (52%), the market HOU; the served pick was HOU and the pick missed. MIL over CIN: model 50.2%, market 58%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed. LAD over WSH: model 60%, market 66%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: SEA 68% over ATH (miss), LAD 66% over WSH (hit), PIT 63% over LAA (miss).
Season to date
Through September 5: 628-506 (55.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.245. Picks at 60% or better went 109-67.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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