MLB Picks for September 4: The Model Went 10-5
By Verdexed Analytics
16 MLB games on September 4. The model went 10-5 on the day and 1 still pending. Season to date through September 4: 624-495 (55.8%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at LAD | LAD | 71% | 68% | 71% | LAD 5-3 | Hit |
| ATH at SEA | SEA | 66% | 61% | 67% | ATH 7-6 | Miss |
| LAA at PIT | PIT | 64% | 70% | 64% | PIT 1-0 | Hit |
| SF at NYM | NYM | 62% | 54% | 63% | NYM 10-6 | Hit |
| MIL at CIN | MIL | 59% | 54% | 59% | MIL 10-7 | Hit |
| CHC at MIA | CHC | 59% | 52% | 59% | CHC 6-1 | Hit |
| AZ at HOU | HOU | 55% | 54% | 55% | HOU 3-1 | Hit |
| DET at CLE | CLE | 54% | 57% | 54% | CLE 4-3 | Hit |
| DET at CLE | CLE | 54% | 57% | 54% | PPD 6-7 | Pending |
| STL at COL | STL | 54% | 58% | 53% | STL 7-6 | Hit |
| ATL at PHI | PHI | 52% | 53% | 52% | ATL 5-2 | Miss |
| NYY at SD | NYY | 52% | 57% | 52% | SD 3-2 | Miss |
| BOS at BAL | BOS | 52% | 47% | 52% | BOS 1-0 | Hit |
| TOR at KC | KC | 52% | 52% | 52% | TOR 9-2 | Miss |
| MIN at CWS | CWS | 52% | 52% | 52% | CWS 4-1 | Hit |
| TB at TEX | TEX | 51% | 52% | 51% | TB 7-6 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
BOS at BAL: the model took BAL (53%), the market BOS; the served pick was BOS and the pick hit. NYM over SF: model 54%, market 63%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. CHC over MIA: model 52%, market 59%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. PIT over LAA: model 70%, market 64%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. SEA over ATH: model 61%, market 67%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. MIL over CIN: model 54%, market 59%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 71% over WSH (hit), SEA 66% over ATH (miss), PIT 64% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through September 4: 624-495 (55.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 108-65.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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