MLB Picks for September 3: The Model Went 5-4
By Verdexed Analytics
9 MLB games on September 3. The model went 5-4 on the day. Season to date through September 3: 614-490 (55.6%), Brier 0.245.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at LAD | LAD | 72% | 65% | 72% | LAD 3-2 | Hit |
| ATH at SEA | SEA | 65% | 56% | 65% | ATH 7-4 | Miss |
| SF at PIT | PIT | 60% | 56% | 60% | PIT 5-2 | Hit |
| CWS at HOU | HOU | 59% | 55% | 59% | HOU 6-2 | Hit |
| TB at TEX | TB | 54% | 48% | 54% | TEX 6-0 | Miss |
| BOS at BAL | BOS | 53% | 55% | 53% | BOS 6-5 | Hit |
| MIA at KC | KC | 52% | 55% | 52% | KC 7-3 | Hit |
| TOR at CLE | CLE | 52% | 54% | 52% | TOR 6-3 | Miss |
| MIL at CHC | MIL | 51% | 48% | 51% | CHC 2-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
TB at TEX: the model took TEX (52%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick missed. MIL at CHC: the model took CHC (52%), the market MIL; the served pick was MIL and the pick missed. SEA over ATH: model 56%, market 65%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed. LAD over STL: model 65%, market 72%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 72% over STL (hit), SEA 65% over ATH (miss), PIT 60% over SF (hit).
Season to date
Through September 3: 614-490 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.245. Picks at 60% or better went 105-64.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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