MLB Picks for September 2: The Model Went 5-10
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 2. The model went 5-10 on the day. Season to date through September 2: 609-486 (55.6%), Brier 0.245.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at LAD | LAD | 68% | 57% | 68% | STL 8-6 | Miss |
| NYM at TB | TB | 61% | 58% | 62% | NYM 10-4 | Miss |
| BAL at COL | BAL | 60% | 70% | 59% | COL 6-5 | Miss |
| ATH at TEX | TEX | 60% | 57% | 60% | ATH 9-2 | Miss |
| NYY at LAA | NYY | 59% | 63% | 59% | NYY 6-3 | Hit |
| SD at CIN | SD | 59% | 54% | 60% | CIN 7-3 | Miss |
| MIL at CHC | MIL | 59% | 52% | 59% | MIL 9-5 | Hit |
| SF at PIT | PIT | 58% | 56% | 58% | SF 5-4 | Miss |
| ATL at WSH | ATL | 56% | 49.6% | 56% | ATL 9-0 | Hit |
| CWS at HOU | HOU | 56% | 54% | 56% | HOU 2-0 | Hit |
| SEA at BOS | BOS | 56% | 60% | 55% | SEA 8-3 | Miss |
| PHI at AZ | PHI | 55% | 47% | 55% | AZ 1-0 | Miss |
| TOR at CLE | TOR | 54% | 50.2% | 54% | TOR 11-0 | Hit |
| DET at MIN | MIN | 51% | 56% | 51% | DET 11-6 | Miss |
| MIA at KC | KC | 51% | 55% | 51% | MIA 9-6 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
PHI at AZ: the model took AZ (53%), the market PHI; the served pick was PHI and the pick missed. ATL at WSH: the model took WSH (50.4%), the market ATL; the served pick was ATL and the pick hit. LAD over STL: model 57%, market 68%, a 12-point gap; the pick missed. BAL over COL: model 70%, market 59%, an 11-point gap; the pick missed. MIL over CHC: model 52%, market 59%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. SD over CIN: model 54%, market 60%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 68% over STL (miss), TB 61% over NYM (miss), BAL 60% over COL (miss).
Season to date
Through September 2: 609-486 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.245. Picks at 60% or better went 103-63.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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