MLB Picks for September 1: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on September 1. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through September 1: 604-476 (55.9%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH at TEX | TEX | 66% | 57% | 67% | TEX 8-5 | Hit |
| NYY at LAA | NYY | 64% | 73% | 63% | NYY 7-3 | Hit |
| STL at LAD | LAD | 64% | 56% | 64% | STL 13-8 | Miss |
| TOR at CLE | CLE | 62% | 56% | 63% | CLE 6-1 | Hit |
| ATL at WSH | ATL | 61% | 49% | 62% | WSH 9-5 | Miss |
| SF at PIT | PIT | 60% | 55% | 61% | PIT 13-12 | Hit |
| BAL at COL | BAL | 57% | 56% | 57% | COL 4-2 | Miss |
| SD at CIN | SD | 56% | 45% | 56% | CIN 4-3 | Miss |
| PHI at AZ | PHI | 55% | 52% | 55% | PHI 7-1 | Hit |
| NYM at TB | TB | 55% | 57% | 54% | TB 6-2 | Hit |
| MIL at CHC | CHC | 54% | 52% | 54% | MIL 9-4 | Miss |
| SEA at BOS | BOS | 54% | 55% | 53% | SEA 9-6 | Miss |
| MIA at KC | KC | 53% | 56% | 52% | MIA 6-3 | Miss |
| DET at MIN | MIN | 51% | 57% | 51% | MIN 15-2 | Hit |
| CWS at HOU | HOU | 50.1% | 53% | 50.0% | CWS 5-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
ATL at WSH: the model took WSH (51%), the market ATL; the served pick was ATL and the pick missed. SD at CIN: the model took CIN (55%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick missed. TEX over ATH: model 57%, market 67%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. NYY over LAA: model 73%, market 63%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over STL: model 56%, market 64%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed. CLE over TOR: model 56%, market 63%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: TEX 66% over ATH (hit), NYY 64% over LAA (hit), LAD 64% over STL (miss).
Season to date
Through September 1: 604-476 (55.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 103-61.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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