MLB Picks for August 31: The Model Went 7-5
By Verdexed Analytics
12 MLB games on August 31. The model went 7-5 on the day. Season to date through August 31: 597-468 (56.1%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at ATL | ATL | 65% | 65% | - | SF 7-3 | Miss |
| NYM at TB | TB | 62% | 62% | - | NYM 3-2 | Miss |
| ATH at TEX | TEX | 58% | 58% | - | TEX 8-1 | Hit |
| SEA at BOS | BOS | 58% | 58% | - | BOS 9-8 | Hit |
| NYY at LAA | NYY | 56% | 56% | - | LAA 10-1 | Miss |
| DET at MIN | MIN | 56% | 56% | - | MIN 11-1 | Hit |
| CWS at HOU | HOU | 56% | 56% | - | HOU 6-3 | Hit |
| MIA at WSH | WSH | 53% | 53% | - | WSH 6-3 | Hit |
| BAL at COL | BAL | 53% | 53% | - | BAL 2-1 | Hit |
| PHI at AZ | AZ | 51% | 51% | - | PHI 2-1 | Miss |
| MIL at CHC | CHC | 51% | 51% | - | CHC 17-3 | Hit |
| SD at CIN | CIN | 51% | 51% | - | SD 5-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATL 65% over SF (miss), TB 62% over NYM (miss), TEX 58% over ATH (hit).
Season to date
Through August 31: 597-468 (56.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 99-59.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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