MLB Picks for August 29: The Model Went 11-5
By Verdexed Analytics
17 MLB games on August 29. The model went 11-5 on the day and 1 still pending. Season to date through August 29: 581-458 (55.9%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at LAA | PHI | 80% | 80% | - | PHI 4-2 | Hit |
| LAD at DET | LAD | 73% | 73% | - | DET 2-1 | Miss |
| TEX at MIL | MIL | 65% | 65% | - | MIL 5-3 | Hit |
| CIN at CHC | CHC | 63% | 63% | - | CHC 17-5 | Hit |
| COL at ATL | ATL | 62% | 62% | - | ATL 2-1 | Hit |
| PIT at STL | STL | 57% | 57% | - | PIT 6-2 | Miss |
| KC at CLE | CLE | 56% | 56% | - | KC 8-3 | Miss |
| SD at TB | TB | 55% | 55% | - | TB 7-6 | Hit |
| SEA at TOR | TOR | 55% | 55% | - | TOR 4-3 | Hit |
| MIA at WSH | WSH | 54% | 54% | - | WSH 5-4 | Hit |
| BOS at NYY | NYY | 54% | 54% | - | PPD 6-0 | Pending |
| BOS at NYY | NYY | 54% | 54% | - | NYY 9-2 | Hit |
| BAL at ATH | BAL | 54% | 54% | - | BAL 5-3 | Hit |
| CWS at MIN | MIN | 53% | 53% | - | CWS 3-2 | Miss |
| AZ at SF | SF | 52% | 52% | - | SF 7-2 | Hit |
| AZ at SF | SF | 52% | 52% | - | AZ 7-1 | Miss |
| HOU at NYM | NYM | 52% | 52% | - | NYM 6-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: PHI 80% over LAA (hit), LAD 73% over DET (miss), MIL 65% over TEX (hit).
Season to date
Through August 29: 581-458 (55.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 98-56.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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