MLB Picks for August 28: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 28. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through August 28: 570-453 (55.7%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at DET | LAD | 69% | 69% | - | LAD 2-1 | Hit |
| COL at ATL | ATL | 63% | 63% | - | ATL 6-4 | Hit |
| TEX at MIL | MIL | 63% | 63% | - | MIL 6-1 | Hit |
| CIN at CHC | CHC | 58% | 58% | - | CIN 10-8 | Miss |
| BOS at NYY | NYY | 56% | 56% | - | NYY 1-0 | Hit |
| KC at CLE | CLE | 55% | 55% | - | KC 3-0 | Miss |
| SD at TB | TB | 54% | 54% | - | TB 9-4 | Hit |
| HOU at NYM | NYM | 54% | 54% | - | HOU 3-1 | Miss |
| PIT at STL | STL | 54% | 54% | - | STL 4-1 | Hit |
| SEA at TOR | TOR | 54% | 54% | - | TOR 8-1 | Hit |
| MIA at WSH | MIA | 53% | 53% | - | WSH 9-2 | Miss |
| AZ at SF | SF | 52% | 52% | - | AZ 10-6 | Miss |
| CWS at MIN | MIN | 51% | 51% | - | CWS 7-4 | Miss |
| BAL at ATH | ATH | 51% | 51% | - | BAL 4-3 | Miss |
| PHI at LAA | PHI | 50.2% | 50.2% | - | PHI 5-3 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 69% over DET (hit), ATL 63% over COL (hit), MIL 63% over TEX (hit).
Season to date
Through August 28: 570-453 (55.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 94-55.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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