MLB Picks for August 26: The Model Went 10-5
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 26. The model went 10-5 on the day. Season to date through August 26: 557-444 (55.6%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at TOR | TOR | 57% | 57% | - | TOR 3-0 | Hit |
| COL at WSH | WSH | 56% | 56% | - | COL 13-1 | Miss |
| CHC at AZ | AZ | 55% | 55% | - | AZ 2-0 | Hit |
| PIT at SD | SD | 54% | 54% | - | SD 3-0 | Hit |
| BOS at MIA | BOS | 54% | 54% | - | MIA 4-0 | Miss |
| HOU at NYY | NYY | 54% | 54% | - | NYY 9-3 | Hit |
| CLE at LAA | CLE | 53% | 53% | - | CLE 4-3 | Hit |
| TEX at CWS | CWS | 53% | 53% | - | CWS 10-4 | Hit |
| MIN at ATH | ATH | 53% | 53% | - | ATH 7-4 | Hit |
| MIL at NYM | MIL | 53% | 53% | - | MIL 8-1 | Hit |
| PHI at SEA | PHI | 52% | 52% | - | PHI 6-0 | Hit |
| LAD at ATL | LAD | 52% | 52% | - | ATL 6-5 | Miss |
| CIN at SF | SF | 51% | 51% | - | CIN 10-9 | Miss |
| BAL at STL | STL | 51% | 51% | - | BAL 8-7 | Miss |
| TB at DET | TB | 51% | 51% | - | TB 3-0 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: TOR 57% over KC (hit), WSH 56% over COL (miss), AZ 55% over CHC (hit).
Season to date
Through August 26: 557-444 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 90-54.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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