MLB Picks for August 25: The Model Went 5-10
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 25. The model went 5-10 on the day. Season to date through August 25: 547-439 (55.5%), Brier 0.245.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DET | TB | 60% | 60% | - | DET 4-1 | Miss |
| LAD at ATL | LAD | 58% | 58% | - | ATL 4-3 | Miss |
| CLE at LAA | CLE | 57% | 57% | - | CLE 8-6 | Hit |
| HOU at NYY | NYY | 56% | 56% | - | HOU 9-7 | Miss |
| KC at TOR | TOR | 56% | 56% | - | KC 5-3 | Miss |
| COL at WSH | WSH | 56% | 56% | - | COL 3-1 | Miss |
| PIT at SD | SD | 55% | 55% | - | PIT 1-0 | Miss |
| MIN at ATH | ATH | 54% | 54% | - | ATH 4-2 | Hit |
| BOS at MIA | MIA | 53% | 53% | - | BOS 7-3 | Miss |
| MIL at NYM | MIL | 53% | 53% | - | NYM 3-2 | Miss |
| CHC at AZ | AZ | 53% | 53% | - | AZ 5-4 | Hit |
| CIN at SF | SF | 53% | 53% | - | SF 3-1 | Hit |
| BAL at STL | STL | 52% | 52% | - | BAL 13-1 | Miss |
| PHI at SEA | SEA | 52% | 52% | - | SEA 4-1 | Hit |
| TEX at CWS | TEX | 52% | 52% | - | CWS 11-7 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: TB 60% over DET (miss), LAD 58% over ATL (miss), CLE 57% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through August 25: 547-439 (55.5%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.245. Picks at 60% or better went 90-54.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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