MLB Picks for August 24: The Model Went 5-5
By Verdexed Analytics
10 MLB games on August 24. The model went 5-5 on the day. Season to date through August 24: 542-429 (55.8%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at LAA | CLE | 69% | 69% | - | CLE 4-2 | Hit |
| COL at WSH | WSH | 63% | 63% | - | WSH 13-3 | Hit |
| TB at DET | TB | 56% | 56% | - | TB 4-1 | Hit |
| PIT at SD | SD | 53% | 53% | - | PIT 3-2 | Miss |
| TEX at CWS | CWS | 53% | 53% | - | TEX 11-2 | Miss |
| MIN at ATH | ATH | 53% | 53% | - | MIN 9-6 | Miss |
| CIN at SF | SF | 53% | 53% | - | SF 5-0 | Hit |
| BOS at MIA | MIA | 51% | 51% | - | BOS 4-2 | Miss |
| CHC at AZ | CHC | 51% | 51% | - | CHC 7-0 | Hit |
| PHI at SEA | PHI | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | SEA 9-2 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: CLE 69% over LAA (hit), WSH 63% over COL (hit), TB 56% over DET (hit).
Season to date
Through August 24: 542-429 (55.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 90-54.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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