MLB Picks for August 23: The Model Went 11-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 23. The model went 11-4 on the day. Season to date through August 23: 537-424 (55.9%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at LAD | LAD | 72% | 62% | 72% | LAD 4-0 | Hit |
| STL at PHI | PHI | 66% | 56% | 67% | PHI 6-4 | Hit |
| SF at BOS | BOS | 66% | 59% | 67% | BOS 5-4 | Hit |
| ATH at HOU | HOU | 63% | 57% | 63% | ATH 7-6 | Miss |
| CLE at COL | CLE | 61% | 61% | 61% | CLE 7-2 | Hit |
| LAA at TEX | TEX | 59% | 58% | 60% | TEX 5-3 | Hit |
| WSH at MIA | MIA | 59% | 57% | 60% | MIA 6-2 | Hit |
| MIN at SD | SD | 56% | 56% | 56% | SD 8-1 | Hit |
| TOR at NYY | NYY | 56% | 56% | 56% | NYY 8-3 | Hit |
| CIN at AZ | AZ | 55% | 54% | 55% | AZ 5-3 | Hit |
| ATL at MIL | MIL | 54% | 58% | 54% | ATL 4-2 | Miss |
| DET at KC | DET | 51% | 45% | 51% | KC 11-7 | Miss |
| CHC at SEA | CHC | 50.3% | 49% | 50.4% | CHC 19-2 | Hit |
| TB at BAL | TB | 50.2% | 47% | 50.4% | TB 3-1 | Hit |
| NYM at CWS | NYM | 50.1% | 45% | 50.4% | CWS 2-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
DET at KC: the model took KC (55%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick missed. NYM at CWS: the model took CWS (55%), the market NYM; the served pick was NYM and the pick missed. TB at BAL: the model took BAL (53%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick hit. CHC at SEA: the model took SEA (51%), the market CHC; the served pick was CHC and the pick hit. LAD over PIT: model 62%, market 72%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. PHI over STL: model 56%, market 67%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 72% over PIT (hit), PHI 66% over STL (hit), BOS 66% over SF (hit).
Season to date
Through August 23: 537-424 (55.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 88-54.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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