MLB Picks for August 22: The Model Went 9-6
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 22. The model went 9-6 on the day. Season to date through August 22: 526-420 (55.6%), Brier 0.245.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at LAD | LAD | 70% | 62% | 70% | LAD 4-3 | Hit |
| ATH at HOU | HOU | 68% | 55% | 69% | ATH 4-3 | Miss |
| SF at BOS | BOS | 65% | 62% | 66% | BOS 3-2 | Hit |
| WSH at MIA | MIA | 62% | 56% | 63% | MIA 4-2 | Hit |
| ATL at MIL | MIL | 62% | 58% | 62% | MIL 4-1 | Hit |
| CIN at AZ | AZ | 61% | 55% | 62% | CIN 11-5 | Miss |
| LAA at TEX | TEX | 61% | 61% | 61% | LAA 3-0 | Miss |
| STL at PHI | PHI | 58% | 55% | 59% | PHI 12-3 | Hit |
| CLE at COL | CLE | 57% | 55% | 57% | CLE 4-3 | Hit |
| MIN at SD | SD | 56% | 56% | 56% | SD 7-5 | Hit |
| TB at BAL | TB | 54% | 52% | 54% | BAL 3-2 | Miss |
| CHC at SEA | SEA | 52% | 51% | 52% | SEA 5-4 | Hit |
| NYM at CWS | CWS | 51% | 52% | 51% | NYM 10-5 | Miss |
| DET at KC | KC | 51% | 53% | 50.5% | KC 3-1 | Hit |
| TOR at NYY | NYY | 50.0% | 51% | 50.0% | TOR 4-3 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
HOU over ATH: model 55%, market 69%, a 13-point gap; the pick missed. LAD over PIT: model 62%, market 70%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. MIA over WSH: model 56%, market 63%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. AZ over CIN: model 55%, market 62%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 70% over PIT (hit), HOU 68% over ATH (miss), BOS 65% over SF (hit).
Season to date
Through August 22: 526-420 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.245. Picks at 60% or better went 84-53.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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