MLB Picks for August 21: The Model Went 14-1
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 21. The model went 14-1 on the day. Season to date through August 21: 517-414 (55.5%), Brier 0.245.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR at NYY | NYY | 68% | 55% | 69% | NYY 3-1 | Hit |
| PIT at LAD | LAD | 67% | 59% | 68% | LAD 5-4 | Hit |
| STL at PHI | PHI | 66% | 55% | 66% | PHI 7-6 | Hit |
| ATH at HOU | HOU | 63% | 53% | 63% | HOU 4-0 | Hit |
| SF at BOS | BOS | 62% | 58% | 62% | BOS 6-4 | Hit |
| CLE at COL | CLE | 59% | 63% | 59% | CLE 9-1 | Hit |
| WSH at MIA | MIA | 58% | 54% | 58% | MIA 3-2 | Hit |
| CIN at AZ | AZ | 58% | 55% | 58% | AZ 9-0 | Hit |
| LAA at TEX | TEX | 57% | 55% | 57% | TEX 2-1 | Hit |
| NYM at CWS | CWS | 57% | 53% | 57% | CWS 6-4 | Hit |
| ATL at MIL | MIL | 57% | 54% | 57% | MIL 2-1 | Hit |
| MIN at SD | SD | 56% | 55% | 56% | SD 6-2 | Hit |
| TB at BAL | BAL | 54% | 53% | 54% | BAL 5-3 | Hit |
| DET at KC | DET | 51% | 48% | 52% | KC 5-2 | Miss |
| CHC at SEA | SEA | 50.2% | 52% | 50.1% | SEA 6-5 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
DET at KC: the model took KC (52%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick missed. NYY over TOR: model 55%, market 69%, a 13-point gap; the pick hit. PHI over STL: model 55%, market 66%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. HOU over ATH: model 53%, market 63%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over PIT: model 59%, market 68%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: NYY 68% over TOR (hit), LAD 67% over PIT (hit), PHI 66% over STL (hit).
Season to date
Through August 21: 517-414 (55.5%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.245. Picks at 60% or better went 80-50.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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