MLB Picks for August 20: The Model Went 7-2
By Verdexed Analytics
9 MLB games on August 20. The model went 7-2 on the day. Season to date through August 20: 503-413 (54.9%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at CLE | CLE | 64% | 57% | 64% | CLE 5-2 | Hit |
| LAA at HOU | HOU | 62% | 55% | 63% | LAA 18-3 | Miss |
| WSH at TEX | TEX | 61% | 56% | 61% | TEX 2-0 | Hit |
| TOR at TB | TB | 60% | 55% | 61% | TOR 5-1 | Miss |
| ATH at KC | KC | 56% | 54% | 56% | KC 6-2 | Hit |
| SEA at MIL | MIL | 55% | 56% | 55% | MIL 7-4 | Hit |
| NYY at BAL | NYY | 53% | 51% | 54% | NYY 6-1 | Hit |
| STL at CIN | STL | 51% | 48% | 51% | STL 10-9 | Hit |
| ATL at CWS | ATL | 50.4% | 51% | 50.4% | ATL 2-0 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
STL at CIN: the model took CIN (52%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick hit. HOU over LAA: model 55%, market 63%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed. CLE over SF: model 57%, market 64%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. TEX over WSH: model 56%, market 61%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit. TB over TOR: model 55%, market 61%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: CLE 64% over SF (hit), HOU 62% over LAA (miss), TEX 61% over WSH (hit).
Season to date
Through August 20: 503-413 (54.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 75-50.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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