MLB Picks for August 19: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 19. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through August 19: 496-411 (54.7%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at CLE | CLE | 67% | 57% | 67% | SF 1-0 | Miss |
| TOR at TB | TB | 65% | 56% | 65% | TB 7-6 | Hit |
| LAD at COL | LAD | 64% | 55% | 64% | LAD 6-4 | Hit |
| AZ at BOS | BOS | 60% | 57% | 60% | AZ 7-6 | Miss |
| DET at PIT | PIT | 59% | 56% | 60% | PIT 4-3 | Hit |
| LAA at HOU | HOU | 59% | 55% | 59% | HOU 3-2 | Hit |
| STL at CIN | CIN | 58% | 54% | 58% | CIN 5-4 | Hit |
| ATH at KC | KC | 57% | 53% | 58% | KC 9-7 | Hit |
| CWS at CHC | CHC | 57% | 55% | 57% | CWS 3-0 | Miss |
| SD at NYM | SD | 56% | 53% | 56% | NYM 4-2 | Miss |
| WSH at TEX | TEX | 55% | 52% | 55% | WSH 6-0 | Miss |
| MIA at PHI | PHI | 54% | 56% | 54% | PHI 4-1 | Hit |
| SEA at MIL | MIL | 54% | 55% | 54% | SEA 7-5 | Miss |
| NYY at BAL | NYY | 53% | 48% | 53% | NYY 5-3 | Hit |
| ATL at MIN | ATL | 51% | 48% | 51% | MIN 6-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
NYY at BAL: the model took BAL (52%), the market NYY; the served pick was NYY and the pick hit. ATL at MIN: the model took MIN (52%), the market ATL; the served pick was ATL and the pick missed. CLE over SF: model 57%, market 67%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed. TB over TOR: model 56%, market 65%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over COL: model 55%, market 64%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: CLE 67% over SF (miss), TB 65% over TOR (hit), LAD 64% over COL (hit).
Season to date
Through August 19: 496-411 (54.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 73-48.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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