MLB Picks for August 18: The Model Went 12-3
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 18. The model went 12-3 on the day. Season to date through August 18: 488-404 (54.7%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at PHI | PHI | 67% | 56% | 68% | PHI 6-4 | Hit |
| SF at CLE | CLE | 64% | 59% | 64% | CLE 8-1 | Hit |
| LAD at COL | LAD | 63% | 54% | 64% | LAD 7-6 | Hit |
| AZ at BOS | BOS | 61% | 56% | 61% | BOS 9-4 | Hit |
| LAA at HOU | HOU | 60% | 60% | 60% | LAA 3-1 | Miss |
| CWS at CHC | CHC | 60% | 54% | 61% | CHC 4-3 | Hit |
| WSH at TEX | TEX | 59% | 52% | 59% | TEX 5-0 | Hit |
| SEA at MIL | MIL | 58% | 58% | 58% | MIL 22-0 | Hit |
| DET at PIT | PIT | 57% | 54% | 58% | PIT 4-1 | Hit |
| ATH at KC | KC | 57% | 53% | 57% | KC 4-3 | Hit |
| TOR at TB | TB | 55% | 53% | 55% | TOR 10-5 | Miss |
| ATL at MIN | ATL | 54% | 56% | 54% | MIN 4-1 | Miss |
| STL at CIN | STL | 53% | 54% | 53% | STL 3-0 | Hit |
| SD at NYM | SD | 52% | 51% | 52% | SD 5-2 | Hit |
| NYY at BAL | NYY | 51% | 47% | 51% | NYY 3-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
NYY at BAL: the model took BAL (53%), the market NYY; the served pick was NYY and the pick hit. PHI over MIA: model 56%, market 68%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over COL: model 54%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. TEX over WSH: model 52%, market 59%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. CHC over CWS: model 54%, market 61%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. BOS over AZ: model 56%, market 61%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: PHI 67% over MIA (hit), CLE 64% over SF (hit), LAD 63% over COL (hit).
Season to date
Through August 18: 488-404 (54.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 71-46.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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