MLB Picks for August 17: The Model Went 9-2
By Verdexed Analytics
11 MLB games on August 17. The model went 9-2 on the day. Season to date through August 17: 476-401 (54.3%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at COL | LAD | 72% | 80% | 71% | LAD 11-5 | Hit |
| MIA at PHI | PHI | 69% | 59% | 70% | PHI 6-5 | Hit |
| ATH at KC | KC | 63% | 56% | 64% | KC 9-5 | Hit |
| CWS at CHC | CHC | 60% | 54% | 61% | CHC 7-5 | Hit |
| BAL at TB | TB | 60% | 55% | 60% | TB 7-6 | Hit |
| AZ at BOS | BOS | 57% | 57% | 57% | BOS 11-1 | Hit |
| ATL at MIN | ATL | 54% | 52% | 54% | MIN 4-2 | Miss |
| SD at NYM | NYM | 53% | 54% | 53% | NYM 2-1 | Hit |
| STL at CIN | STL | 51% | 48% | 52% | STL 2-1 | Hit |
| STL at CIN | STL | 51% | 48% | 52% | CIN 6-5 | Miss |
| DET at PIT | DET | 51% | 54% | 50.5% | DET 8-5 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
STL at CIN: the model took CIN (52%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick hit. STL at CIN: the model took CIN (52%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick missed. PHI over MIA: model 59%, market 70%, an 11-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over COL: model 80%, market 71%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. KC over ATH: model 56%, market 64%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. CHC over CWS: model 54%, market 61%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 72% over COL (hit), PHI 69% over MIA (hit), KC 63% over ATH (hit).
Season to date
Through August 17: 476-401 (54.3%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 66-45.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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