MLB Picks for August 16: The Model Went 6-9
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 16. The model went 6-9 on the day. Season to date through August 16: 467-399 (53.9%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at LAD | LAD | 63% | 55% | 63% | MIL 6-2 | Miss |
| STL at CHC | CHC | 62% | 54% | 62% | STL 11-4 | Miss |
| WSH at NYM | NYM | 60% | 56% | 61% | NYM 4-3 | Hit |
| BAL at TB | TB | 57% | 54% | 57% | BAL 10-2 | Miss |
| TEX at ATH | TEX | 55% | 52% | 56% | ATH 5-2 | Miss |
| COL at SF | SF | 55% | 53% | 55% | COL 13-7 | Miss |
| AZ at ATL | ATL | 54% | 53% | 54% | ATL 5-3 | Hit |
| NYY at TOR | TOR | 53% | 55% | 53% | NYY 4-3 | Miss |
| MIA at CIN | MIA | 53% | 47% | 53% | MIA 7-1 | Hit |
| SEA at HOU | HOU | 53% | 53% | 53% | SEA 3-2 | Miss |
| BOS at PIT | BOS | 52% | 53% | 52% | PIT 8-3 | Miss |
| KC at LAA | KC | 52% | 53% | 51% | KC 3-0 | Hit |
| CWS at DET | DET | 51% | 53% | 51% | CWS 7-5 | Miss |
| PHI at MIN | PHI | 51% | 48% | 51% | PHI 7-5 | Hit |
| SD at CLE | SD | 51% | 47% | 51% | SD 5-0 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
MIA at CIN: the model took CIN (53%), the market MIA; the served pick was MIA and the pick hit. SD at CLE: the model took CLE (53%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick hit. PHI at MIN: the model took MIN (52%), the market PHI; the served pick was PHI and the pick hit. CHC over STL: model 54%, market 62%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed. LAD over MIL: model 55%, market 63%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 63% over MIL (miss), CHC 62% over STL (miss), NYM 60% over WSH (hit).
Season to date
Through August 16: 467-399 (53.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 62-45.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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