MLB Picks for August 15: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 15. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through August 15: 461-390 (54.2%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at CHC | CHC | 62% | 57% | 62% | STL 8-4 | Miss |
| COL at SF | SF | 62% | 63% | 62% | SF 7-1 | Hit |
| NYY at TOR | NYY | 61% | 56% | 62% | TOR 4-1 | Miss |
| KC at LAA | LAA | 58% | 57% | 58% | LAA 1-0 | Hit |
| BAL at TB | TB | 58% | 58% | 58% | BAL 4-3 | Miss |
| PHI at MIN | PHI | 57% | 59% | 57% | PHI 9-1 | Hit |
| TEX at ATH | TEX | 57% | 53% | 57% | TEX 5-3 | Hit |
| CWS at DET | DET | 57% | 58% | 57% | CWS 4-3 | Miss |
| WSH at NYM | NYM | 56% | 56% | 56% | NYM 5-4 | Hit |
| AZ at ATL | ATL | 56% | 57% | 56% | AZ 10-3 | Miss |
| MIL at LAD | MIL | 54% | 53% | 54% | MIL 4-1 | Hit |
| BOS at PIT | BOS | 54% | 55% | 54% | BOS 4-0 | Hit |
| SEA at HOU | HOU | 53% | 55% | 53% | SEA 10-5 | Miss |
| SD at CLE | CLE | 53% | 54% | 53% | CLE 6-1 | Hit |
| MIA at CIN | CIN | 51% | 53% | 51% | MIA 8-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
NYY over TOR: model 56%, market 62%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: CHC 62% over STL (miss), SF 62% over COL (hit), NYY 61% over TOR (miss).
Season to date
Through August 15: 461-390 (54.2%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 61-43.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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