MLB Picks for August 14: The Model Went 6-8
By Verdexed Analytics
14 MLB games on August 14. The model went 6-8 on the day. Season to date through August 14: 453-383 (54.2%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ at ATL | ATL | 64% | 56% | 65% | AZ 2-0 | Miss |
| MIL at LAD | LAD | 63% | 56% | 63% | LAD 3-1 | Hit |
| STL at CHC | CHC | 62% | 59% | 62% | CHC 3-0 | Hit |
| BAL at TB | TB | 61% | 57% | 61% | BAL 6-5 | Miss |
| CWS at DET | DET | 58% | 53% | 58% | CWS 9-5 | Miss |
| NYY at TOR | NYY | 58% | 55% | 58% | TOR 3-1 | Miss |
| SD at CLE | CLE | 55% | 56% | 55% | SD 7-5 | Miss |
| COL at SF | SF | 54% | 56% | 54% | COL 5-2 | Miss |
| SEA at HOU | HOU | 54% | 53% | 54% | HOU 10-7 | Hit |
| BOS at PIT | BOS | 54% | 57% | 54% | PIT 8-4 | Miss |
| WSH at NYM | NYM | 53% | 53% | 53% | NYM 4-1 | Hit |
| MIA at CIN | CIN | 52% | 53% | 52% | CIN 1-0 | Hit |
| TEX at ATH | TEX | 51% | 48% | 51% | ATH 8-3 | Miss |
| KC at LAA | KC | 50.4% | 47% | 51% | KC 7-6 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
KC at LAA: the model took LAA (53%), the market KC; the served pick was KC and the pick hit. TEX at ATH: the model took ATH (52%), the market TEX; the served pick was TEX and the pick missed. ATL over AZ: model 56%, market 65%, a 9-point gap; the pick missed. LAD over MIL: model 56%, market 63%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATL 64% over AZ (miss), LAD 63% over MIL (hit), CHC 62% over STL (hit).
Season to date
Through August 14: 453-383 (54.2%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 60-41.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.