MLB Picks for August 13: The Model Went 3-6
By Verdexed Analytics
9 MLB games on August 13. The model went 3-6 on the day. Season to date through August 13: 447-375 (54.4%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at TOR | BOS | 59% | 60% | 59% | BOS 7-0 | Hit |
| TEX at LAA | TEX | 59% | 62% | 59% | LAA 7-0 | Miss |
| CHC at WSH | CHC | 58% | 58% | 58% | WSH 7-0 | Miss |
| SEA at NYY | NYY | 57% | 58% | 57% | SEA 1-0 | Miss |
| MIL at LAD | LAD | 57% | 48% | 57% | MIL 5-4 | Miss |
| CIN at CWS | CWS | 55% | 55% | 55% | CIN 9-8 | Miss |
| PIT at MIA | PIT | 53% | 47% | 54% | PIT 13-1 | Hit |
| CLE at DET | CLE | 53% | 49% | 53% | DET 3-0 | Miss |
| PHI at MIN | PHI | 50.0% | 53% | 49.9% | PHI 7-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
MIL at LAD: the model took MIL (52%), the market LAD; the served pick was LAD and the pick missed. PIT at MIA: the model took MIA (53%), the market PIT; the served pick was PIT and the pick hit. CLE at DET: the model took DET (51%), the market CLE; the served pick was CLE and the pick missed. PHI at MIN: the model took PHI (53%), the market MIN; the served pick was PHI and the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: BOS 59% over TOR (hit), TEX 59% over LAA (miss), CHC 58% over WSH (miss).
Season to date
Through August 13: 447-375 (54.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 58-39.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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