MLB Picks for August 12: The Model Went 9-6
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 12. The model went 9-6 on the day. Season to date through August 12: 444-369 (54.6%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at ATH | TB | 66% | 61% | 66% | TB 8-4 | Hit |
| KC at LAD | LAD | 66% | 57% | 66% | LAD 4-2 | Hit |
| COL at AZ | AZ | 63% | 65% | 62% | COL 6-4 | Miss |
| NYM at ATL | ATL | 61% | 59% | 61% | ATL 6-3 | Hit |
| PHI at STL | PHI | 60% | 57% | 60% | STL 7-1 | Miss |
| CHC at WSH | CHC | 60% | 57% | 60% | CHC 12-6 | Hit |
| HOU at SF | HOU | 57% | 55% | 57% | HOU 2-1 | Hit |
| CIN at CWS | CWS | 57% | 54% | 57% | CWS 5-0 | Hit |
| TEX at LAA | TEX | 56% | 62% | 55% | LAA 5-2 | Miss |
| SEA at NYY | NYY | 55% | 57% | 55% | NYY 10-5 | Hit |
| CLE at DET | DET | 54% | 58% | 54% | CLE 6-4 | Miss |
| BOS at TOR | BOS | 54% | 58% | 53% | TOR 6-4 | Miss |
| MIL at SD | MIL | 52% | 48% | 52% | SD 4-3 | Miss |
| PIT at MIA | MIA | 51% | 55% | 51% | MIA 8-2 | Hit |
| BAL at MIN | MIN | 50.2% | 47% | 50.4% | MIN 7-5 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
MIL at SD: the model took SD (52%), the market MIL; the served pick was MIL and the pick missed. BAL at MIN: the model took BAL (53%), the market MIN; the served pick was MIN and the pick hit. LAD over KC: model 57%, market 66%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. TEX over LAA: model 62%, market 55%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed. TB over ATH: model 61%, market 66%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: TB 66% over ATH (hit), LAD 66% over KC (hit), AZ 63% over COL (miss).
Season to date
Through August 12: 444-369 (54.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 58-39.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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