MLB Picks for August 11: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 11. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through August 11: 435-363 (54.5%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at LAD | LAD | 70% | 65% | 70% | LAD 5-4 | Hit |
| COL at AZ | AZ | 62% | 60% | 62% | COL 3-2 | Miss |
| PHI at STL | PHI | 62% | 69% | 61% | STL 2-0 | Miss |
| HOU at SF | HOU | 62% | 49% | 63% | SF 4-1 | Miss |
| TB at ATH | TB | 60% | 55% | 61% | TB 12-4 | Hit |
| CHC at WSH | CHC | 60% | 56% | 60% | CHC 8-6 | Hit |
| CIN at CWS | CWS | 59% | 58% | 59% | CIN 5-4 | Miss |
| TEX at LAA | TEX | 58% | 64% | 57% | LAA 3-2 | Miss |
| MIL at SD | MIL | 57% | 63% | 56% | SD 11-2 | Miss |
| BOS at TOR | TOR | 57% | 54% | 57% | TOR 5-3 | Hit |
| SEA at NYY | NYY | 54% | 52% | 55% | NYY 4-1 | Hit |
| CLE at DET | DET | 54% | 57% | 54% | DET 6-4 | Hit |
| NYM at ATL | ATL | 54% | 52% | 55% | ATL 4-0 | Hit |
| BAL at MIN | MIN | 52% | 54% | 52% | BAL 5-2 | Miss |
| PIT at MIA | PIT | 52% | 51% | 52% | MIA 2-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
HOU at SF: the model took SF (51%), the market HOU; the served pick was HOU and the pick missed. PHI over STL: model 69%, market 61%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed. MIL over SD: model 63%, market 56%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed. TEX over LAA: model 64%, market 57%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed. TB over ATH: model 55%, market 61%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over KC: model 65%, market 70%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 70% over KC (hit), AZ 62% over COL (miss), PHI 62% over STL (miss).
Season to date
Through August 11: 435-363 (54.5%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 55-38.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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