MLB Picks for August 10: The Model Went 6-4
By Verdexed Analytics
10 MLB games on August 10. The model went 6-4 on the day. Season to date through August 10: 428-355 (54.7%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at LAD | LAD | 70% | 62% | 72% | LAD 6-5 | Hit |
| COL at AZ | AZ | 63% | 57% | 65% | AZ 9-0 | Hit |
| TB at ATH | TB | 58% | 55% | 59% | TB 10-6 | Hit |
| BOS at TOR | BOS | 58% | 55% | 59% | TOR 2-1 | Miss |
| HOU at SF | HOU | 57% | 53% | 58% | HOU 6-3 | Hit |
| NYM at ATL | ATL | 56% | 51% | 57% | NYM 8-5 | Miss |
| MIL at SD | MIL | 53% | 57% | 52% | SD 3-2 | Miss |
| PHI at STL | PHI | 53% | 53% | 53% | PHI 6-5 | Hit |
| BAL at MIN | BAL | 52% | 54% | 52% | MIN 9-5 | Miss |
| TEX at LAA | TEX | 51% | 48% | 52% | TEX 4-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
TEX at LAA: the model took LAA (52%), the market TEX; the served pick was TEX and the pick hit. LAD over KC: model 62%, market 72%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. AZ over COL: model 57%, market 65%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. ATL over NYM: model 51%, market 57%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. HOU over SF: model 53%, market 58%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 70% over KC (hit), AZ 63% over COL (hit), TB 58% over ATH (hit).
Season to date
Through August 10: 428-355 (54.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 53-35.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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