MLB Picks for August 9: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 9. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through August 9: 422-351 (54.6%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at MIL | MIL | 69% | 66% | 70% | MIL 4-3 | Hit |
| ATH at BOS | BOS | 68% | 63% | 69% | ATH 4-3 | Miss |
| TOR at PHI | PHI | 65% | 60% | 66% | PHI 7-6 | Hit |
| COL at STL | STL | 61% | 62% | 60% | STL 7-4 | Hit |
| CHC at KC | CHC | 59% | 54% | 59% | CHC 10-2 | Hit |
| LAA at MIA | MIA | 57% | 58% | 57% | MIA 12-3 | Hit |
| NYM at PIT | PIT | 57% | 56% | 57% | NYM 11-1 | Miss |
| ATL at NYY | NYY | 57% | 56% | 57% | ATL 2-1 | Miss |
| LAD at AZ | LAD | 57% | 52% | 58% | AZ 4-2 | Miss |
| BAL at TEX | TEX | 55% | 55% | 55% | BAL 10-5 | Miss |
| HOU at SD | SD | 54% | 55% | 53% | SD 7-2 | Hit |
| CLE at CWS | CLE | 52% | 54% | 51% | CWS 5-3 | Miss |
| DET at SF | DET | 52% | 46% | 53% | DET 3-1 | Hit |
| CIN at WSH | CIN | 50.3% | 52% | 49.9% | WSH 7-1 | Miss |
| TB at SEA | SEA | 50.0% | 48% | 50.5% | TB 4-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
DET at SF: the model took SF (54%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick hit. TB at SEA: the model took TB (52%), the market SEA; the served pick was SEA and the pick missed. CIN at WSH: the model took CIN (52%), the market WSH; the served pick was CIN and the pick missed. BOS over ATH: model 63%, market 69%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed. PHI over TOR: model 60%, market 66%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over AZ: model 52%, market 58%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 69% over MIN (hit), BOS 68% over ATH (miss), PHI 65% over TOR (hit).
Season to date
Through August 9: 422-351 (54.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 51-35.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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