MLB Picks for August 7: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 7. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through August 7: 408-335 (54.9%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH at BOS | BOS | 70% | 59% | 71% | BOS 13-1 | Hit |
| TOR at PHI | PHI | 66% | 58% | 66% | TOR 5-4 | Miss |
| MIN at MIL | MIL | 63% | 61% | 63% | MIN 8-6 | Miss |
| LAD at AZ | LAD | 62% | 48% | 62% | AZ 4-3 | Miss |
| COL at STL | STL | 60% | 58% | 61% | STL 3-2 | Hit |
| CHC at KC | CHC | 60% | 52% | 61% | CHC 6-4 | Hit |
| LAA at MIA | MIA | 59% | 57% | 59% | LAA 4-3 | Miss |
| BAL at TEX | TEX | 57% | 54% | 57% | TEX 2-1 | Hit |
| CLE at CWS | CLE | 56% | 52% | 57% | CLE 8-2 | Hit |
| ATL at NYY | NYY | 56% | 53% | 56% | NYY 3-2 | Hit |
| NYM at PIT | PIT | 55% | 53% | 56% | NYM 6-4 | Miss |
| DET at SF | DET | 55% | 49% | 55% | SF 5-2 | Miss |
| CIN at WSH | WSH | 52% | 55% | 52% | WSH 5-3 | Hit |
| TB at SEA | SEA | 52% | 53% | 52% | TB 2-1 | Miss |
| HOU at SD | SD | 52% | 53% | 52% | HOU 6-3 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
LAD at AZ: the model took AZ (52%), the market LAD; the served pick was LAD and the pick missed. DET at SF: the model took SF (51%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick missed. BOS over ATH: model 59%, market 71%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. CHC over KC: model 52%, market 61%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. PHI over TOR: model 58%, market 66%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: BOS 70% over ATH (hit), PHI 66% over TOR (miss), MIL 63% over MIN (miss).
Season to date
Through August 7: 408-335 (54.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 47-32.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.