MLB Picks for August 6: The Model Went 5-5
By Verdexed Analytics
11 MLB games on August 6. The model went 5-5 on the day and 1 still pending. Season to date through August 6: 401-327 (55.1%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at PHI | PHI | 74% | 60% | 76% | PHI 7-3 | Hit |
| LAA at BAL | BAL | 64% | 59% | 64% | LAA 4-1 | Miss |
| CWS at BOS | BOS | 63% | 58% | 63% | BOS 12-11 | Hit |
| ATH at CIN | CIN | 60% | 54% | 61% | CIN 6-5 | Hit |
| MIA at ATL | ATL | 57% | 53% | 58% | ATL 11-3 | Hit |
| PIT at MIL | MIL | 54% | 55% | 54% | MIL 5-2 | Hit |
| DET at SEA | SEA | 54% | 52% | 54% | DET 11-0 | Miss |
| NYM at CLE | CLE | 54% | 52% | 54% | NYM 13-6 | Miss |
| MIN at KC | KC | 53% | 53% | 53% | MIN 4-3 | Miss |
| TOR at CHC | TOR | 51% | 47% | 52% | PPD 2-3 | Pending |
| SD at AZ | AZ | 50.4% | 55% | 50.0% | SD 5-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
TOR at CHC: the model took CHC (53%), the market TOR; the served pick was TOR and still pending. PHI over WSH: model 60%, market 76%, a 15-point gap; the pick hit. CIN over ATH: model 54%, market 61%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: PHI 74% over WSH (hit), BAL 64% over LAA (miss), BOS 63% over CWS (hit).
Season to date
Through August 6: 401-327 (55.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 44-29.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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