MLB Picks for August 5: The Model Went 10-5
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 5. The model went 10-5 on the day. Season to date through August 5: 396-322 (55.2%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR at HOU | HOU | 66% | 55% | 66% | TOR 5-4 | Miss |
| WSH at PHI | PHI | 63% | 55% | 64% | WSH 10-4 | Miss |
| SF at TEX | TEX | 60% | 57% | 60% | TEX 6-0 | Hit |
| TB at COL | TB | 60% | 55% | 60% | TB 4-0 | Hit |
| STL at NYY | NYY | 59% | 56% | 60% | STL 3-1 | Miss |
| ATH at CIN | CIN | 58% | 57% | 58% | CIN 3-2 | Hit |
| DET at SEA | SEA | 58% | 53% | 58% | SEA 4-2 | Hit |
| CWS at BOS | BOS | 55% | 54% | 55% | BOS 4-0 | Hit |
| PIT at MIL | MIL | 54% | 54% | 54% | MIL 4-2 | Hit |
| SD at AZ | SD | 54% | 54% | 54% | AZ 10-4 | Miss |
| MIA at ATL | ATL | 54% | 52% | 54% | ATL 4-1 | Hit |
| LAA at BAL | BAL | 53% | 55% | 53% | BAL 5-2 | Hit |
| LAD at CHC | CHC | 53% | 54% | 53% | CHC 7-6 | Hit |
| MIN at KC | KC | 53% | 53% | 53% | KC 2-1 | Hit |
| NYM at CLE | CLE | 50.3% | 53% | 50.2% | NYM 6-5 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
HOU over TOR: model 55%, market 66%, a 12-point gap; the pick missed. PHI over WSH: model 55%, market 64%, a 9-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: HOU 66% over TOR (miss), PHI 63% over WSH (miss), TEX 60% over SF (hit).
Season to date
Through August 5: 396-322 (55.2%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 41-28.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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