MLB Picks for August 4: The Model Went 10-5
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 4. The model went 10-5 on the day. Season to date through August 4: 386-317 (54.9%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at PHI | PHI | 71% | 61% | 72% | PHI 5-0 | Hit |
| LAD at CHC | LAD | 65% | 58% | 66% | CHC 5-1 | Miss |
| SF at TEX | TEX | 65% | 60% | 65% | TEX 5-4 | Hit |
| STL at NYY | NYY | 64% | 55% | 64% | NYY 2-0 | Hit |
| TB at COL | TB | 60% | 48% | 60% | TB 9-7 | Hit |
| NYM at CLE | CLE | 59% | 57% | 59% | NYM 6-2 | Miss |
| LAA at BAL | BAL | 58% | 55% | 59% | BAL 3-1 | Hit |
| MIN at KC | MIN | 57% | 49% | 58% | KC 8-2 | Miss |
| PIT at MIL | MIL | 57% | 58% | 57% | MIL 4-2 | Hit |
| MIA at ATL | ATL | 57% | 53% | 57% | ATL 4-2 | Hit |
| ATH at CIN | CIN | 55% | 56% | 55% | CIN 5-4 | Hit |
| CWS at BOS | BOS | 55% | 57% | 55% | BOS 14-2 | Hit |
| DET at SEA | SEA | 55% | 53% | 55% | DET 8-0 | Miss |
| TOR at HOU | HOU | 54% | 53% | 55% | HOU 7-2 | Hit |
| SD at AZ | AZ | 53% | 55% | 53% | SD 9-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
TB at COL: the model took COL (52%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick hit. MIN at KC: the model took KC (51%), the market MIN; the served pick was MIN and the pick missed. PHI over WSH: model 61%, market 72%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. NYY over STL: model 55%, market 64%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over CHC: model 58%, market 66%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed. TEX over SF: model 60%, market 65%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: PHI 71% over WSH (hit), LAD 65% over CHC (miss), TEX 65% over SF (hit).
Season to date
Through August 4: 386-317 (54.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 40-26.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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