MLB Picks for August 3: The Model Went 3-5
By Verdexed Analytics
8 MLB games on August 3. The model went 3-5 on the day. Season to date through August 3: 376-312 (54.7%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at NYY | NYY | 65% | 58% | 66% | STL 13-7 | Miss |
| TB at COL | TB | 61% | 64% | 60% | TB 13-9 | Hit |
| WSH at PHI | PHI | 60% | 55% | 60% | PHI 6-3 | Hit |
| PIT at MIL | MIL | 57% | 55% | 57% | PIT 4-3 | Miss |
| TOR at HOU | HOU | 54% | 53% | 54% | TOR 3-1 | Miss |
| LAD at CHC | LAD | 53% | 48% | 53% | CHC 10-5 | Miss |
| SF at TEX | TEX | 53% | 53% | 53% | SF 5-1 | Miss |
| SD at AZ | AZ | 51% | 49.8% | 51% | AZ 5-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
LAD at CHC: the model took CHC (52%), the market LAD; the served pick was LAD and the pick missed. SD at AZ: the model took SD (50.2%), the market AZ; the served pick was AZ and the pick hit. NYY over STL: model 58%, market 66%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: NYY 65% over STL (miss), TB 61% over COL (hit), PHI 60% over WSH (hit).
Season to date
Through August 3: 376-312 (54.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 37-25.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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