MLB Picks for August 2: The Model Went 11-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 2. The model went 11-4 on the day. Season to date through August 2: 373-307 (54.9%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at LAA | MIL | 69% | 80% | 67% | LAA 3-0 | Miss |
| BOS at LAD | LAD | 61% | 54% | 62% | BOS 8-4 | Miss |
| AZ at CLE | CLE | 60% | 54% | 62% | CLE 5-0 | Hit |
| CWS at TB | TB | 58% | 58% | 58% | CWS 9-1 | Miss |
| SF at SD | SD | 58% | 57% | 58% | SD 5-4 | Hit |
| PIT at CIN | CIN | 58% | 53% | 59% | CIN 10-2 | Hit |
| MIN at SEA | SEA | 56% | 55% | 56% | SEA 7-6 | Hit |
| PHI at BAL | PHI | 56% | 55% | 56% | PHI 8-0 | Hit |
| TEX at HOU | HOU | 55% | 53% | 56% | HOU 7-3 | Hit |
| NYY at CHC | NYY | 53% | 52% | 54% | NYY 2-1 | Hit |
| KC at COL | COL | 53% | 46% | 55% | COL 8-1 | Hit |
| STL at TOR | TOR | 53% | 51% | 53% | STL 5-1 | Miss |
| MIA at NYM | MIA | 52% | 49% | 53% | MIA 2-0 | Hit |
| WSH at ATL | ATL | 52% | 49% | 53% | ATL 4-2 | Hit |
| DET at ATH | DET | 51% | 47% | 51% | DET 11-0 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
KC at COL: the model took KC (54%), the market COL; the served pick was COL and the pick hit. DET at ATH: the model took ATH (53%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick hit. WSH at ATL: the model took WSH (51%), the market ATL; the served pick was ATL and the pick hit. MIA at NYM: the model took NYM (51%), the market MIA; the served pick was MIA and the pick hit. MIL over LAA: model 80%, market 67%, a 13-point gap; the pick missed. LAD over BOS: model 54%, market 62%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 69% over LAA (miss), LAD 61% over BOS (miss), CLE 60% over AZ (hit).
Season to date
Through August 2: 373-307 (54.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 36-24.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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